TERROR THREAT IN GERMANY - AT 9:25 A.M. ET:  With all that's happening in the United States, it's easy to be distracted from the wars going on around the world, and the war on terror.  Since the Obama administration doesn't use "war on terror," apparently because it's too Bushian, maybe we can employ another phrase like, "vigorous disagreement with those representing an alternative, sometimes upsetting philosophy."  That should satisfy the Harvard Crimson. 

Germany is openly admitting that it's a major target.  Why?  There are three reasons.  First, Germany has a national parliamentary election on September 27th, and a terror attack might be launched to try to change the outcome.  Al Qaeda and similar groups recall with great fondness how a terror attack in Spain led to the expulsion of a pro-American government and the installation of a socialist government hostile to Washington.

Second, Germany is the weak link in the Afghan chain.  After the U.S. and Britain, Germany has more troops in Afghanistan than any other NATO nation, but the Afghan commitment is strongly unpopular with the German public.  A terror attack might push public opinion over the edge, and lead to a withdrawal of German troops.

Third, Germany is a major trading partner of Iran, and has resisted American requests for increased sanctions on that terror-directing country.  A terror attack in Germany could remind Germans of the consequences of ever succumbing to American pressure.

Spiegel Online, a major German publication, has the stark facts:

A recent routine police operation uncovered a possible terror suspect. The development illustrates just how tense the security situation is in Germany, with the government issuing the clearest warnings yet of a possible attack by Islamist terrorists. How much do the country's security officials know?

Apparently quite a bit...

German security authorities, especially the Interior Ministry, have rarely spoken as often and openly about a supposedly imminent attack as they have this summer. They have both a preventive plan -- what the authorities intend to do prevent this attack -- and an emergency plan that would be implemented if an attack actually does take place.

The government is fluctuating between alarmism and reassurance.

And...

Of course, the news currently unfolding behind the scenes is far from comforting. A delegation of officials from the Federal Office of Criminal Investigation (BKA), the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, Germany's domestic intelligence agency, and the BND, the country's foreign intelligence agency, recently visited several countries in North Africa. The officials returned convinced that al-Qaida had declared Germany a target for attacks.

COMMENT:  The Obama administration, in another brilliant stroke of foreign policy, has made little effort to firm up our alliance with Germany.  In fact, there have been many reports of friction between President Obama and the generally conservative German chancellor, Angela Merkel.  That lack of support by Washington could wreak havoc with German policy if there's a major terror attack, as Germans look around and weigh the value of their relationship with the United States.

July 28, 2009